Every now and then, an old yellowed diagram returns to the internet. Its title is “Periods When to Make Money.” It claims to show when panic, hard times, and good times appear in the economy.
The chart is often linked to the famous trader W. D. Gann, but its real author was Samuel Benner — a 19th-century farmer and iron manufacturer from Ohio.
Benner lost money after the Panic of 1873, a major financial crisis. This led him to ask a simple question: do economic crises repeat in recognizable patterns?
In 1875, he published Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices. In it, he presented a simple cycle:
- Panic – prices fall, confidence disappears, and investors sell.
Examples often linked to this mood include 1873, 1929, 2008, and 2020. - Hard times – the economy recovers slowly, and prices may remain low.
According to Benner, this could be a time to buy. - Good times – optimism grows, prices rise, and markets become confident.
Benner believed this could be a better time to sell.
His main idea was simple: markets are not moved only by money. They are also moved by fear, greed, and memory. This is where power and knowledge meet. Knowledge helps us see patterns. Power appears when a person does not simply follow the crowd.
Benner also suggested approximate rhythms:
- good times return about every 8–10 years
- larger crisis waves appear about every 16–20 years
Later, economists discussed other cycles:
- Kitchin cycle: about 3–5 years
- Juglar cycle: about 7–11 years
- Kondratiev wave: about 40–60 years
These numbers are not exact predictions. But they show one important idea: economies often move in waves, not straight lines.
Why This Old Chart Still Spreads
Benner’s chart often returns when markets become uncertain. People want to believe that chaos has structure.
That is why the chart remains interesting. It may not predict the future exactly, but it shows something lasting about human behavior.
A familiar pattern often appears in financial history:
optimism → speculation → bubble → panic → recovery
This pattern can be seen in old financial bubbles, the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and cryptocurrency cycles.
Benner’s chart should not be used blindly as an investment guide. Its value lies elsewhere.
It reminds us that:
- markets are shaped by emotion
- good times can create too much confidence
- panic can create opportunity
- history helps us understand the present
This is where knowledge becomes practical. And from that knowledge, a kind of power can grow — not certainty about the future, but better judgment in uncertain times.
Samuel Benner was not a Wall Street genius. He was a farmer trying to understand why prices rise and fall.
Perhaps the true message of his chart is simple: economic systems change, but human behavior often repeats. And inside those repeating patterns, people still search for power through knowledge.
Sources and Further Reading
- Samuel Benner – Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices (1875)
- Wikipedia – Benner’s Cycle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner%27s_cycle - Kindleberger, Charles – Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
- NBER – Historical Business Cycle Research
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Foto; Wikipedia